Wednesday, October 8, 2008

The Obama/McCain Show, Part 2

Well, the second contest between Sen. Obama and McCain closed out without much fanfare, but pretty distinct differences. As a matter of winning and losing, this debate went decisively to the Obama campaign. Flash polls from CNN to CBS are giving the debate to Obama by margins from roughly 15-25 points, certainly far from a tie. Naturally, this hurts McCain immensely as he is already 5-8 points down in national polling, and we're likely to see a 2 point drift to Obama in post-debate polling given the Obama momentum being unchanged.

In terms of substance, I think both candidates were able to push their message, and Obama ultimately probably won in this field because he was better able to articulate his positions and empathize with the audience. Obama clearly shined when the issue came to the health care system, he felt well versed and in control. The same remark can be made about McCain and the approach towards Russia. These results are generally what we anticipate though, and in a domestic policy election, Obama is running the field in domestic policy. As a matter of style and presentation, Obama simply outshined McCain throughout the debate. The problem with McCain's performance was partially due to factors out of his control though. Short of a completely groundbreaking economic proposal, it has been accepted at this point that he has to go negative on Obama to try and close the poll numbers. In fact, McCain did go negative throughout the debate, although so did Obama in response. I suspect McCain took a far larger hit on negativity due to his presentation. The negativity felt petty and awkward, and the visual presentation was similar in comparison to Clinton/Dole or Kennedy/Nixon. It is just not possible for McCain to compete against Obama on appearance simply due to the age and vitality difference.

Where do things go from here? Well, like I said above, I fully anticipate this debate to cause a 2 point drift or so in the Obama direction, nationally. This kind of development the McCain campaign simply cant afford. Obama has already sealed 264 electoral votes outside the margin of error according to conservative NBC estimates, and he has 5-7 current toss-up states polling slightly his way. It seems likely at this point that the new poll numbers coming from those states are going to begin to move far enough his way that they move outside of the margin of error and safely into his column. So, this leaves McCain with two options that 'may' halt or reverse the poll numbers. One of those options is that he develops a significant new economic plan, and delivers it in a major policy speech. With 60% of voters deeming the economy the post important issue they care about, appearing out of touch on the economy will cause him to lose in a big way. The second option, is the scorched earth character attack strategy they have already suggested. While this option may prevent Obama's poll numbers from moving any higher, I seriously doubt this would prove to be a net benefit to McCain as much as it would either backfire tremendously against him or tear both candidates down proportionally. If the McCain campaign is unwilling to make a bold new economic proposal though, it is my conclusion that they WILL embark on this strategy as it is the final strategy left to them at this point.

My verdict? I think the McCain campaign has reached the the "Hooked-Lined-Sinker" point due to circumstances within and outside their control. They certainly didn't want the economic crisis; however, they didn't aid the situation by boxing themselves in by using their credibility capital too early and executing a botched response to the crisis. I do not foresee them implementing a new economic strategy, which ultimately leaves a very muddy path to November 4th.

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