The Keating Attack

In a move widely expected by Democratic operatives, on Monday afternoon, the Obama campaign will begin to address via an internet campaign, the Charles Keating "Keating 5" savings-and-loan scandal of 1989-1991. This scandal was especially damaging to Sen. McCain as he was criticized among four other senators by the U.S. Senate for providing political leverage for Mr. Keating while his banking firm cheated many out of their life savings. The move comes shortly after VP candidate Sarah Palin accused Sen. Obama of "palling around with terrorists," referencing his alleged relationship with former 60's radical William Ayres, and citing a NY Times article that actually proved to debunk the relationship.

Behind the headlines, I am in agreement that this strategy is an effective one. It was generally acknowledged by multiple circles that the Keating 5 scandal would eventually rear its head in this campaign, with a special irony given the current economic crisis. I would expect that the Keating card was one that the Obama people were holding in their deck as a last resort maneuver. Honestly, what better time to use this card than when the McCain campaign has to rely on media exposure to "take off the gloves" on Obama. The Obama move will serve to muddle their original message and instead promote the idea of a campaign smear fight through the news outlets, a fight Mr.Obama will likely win given the ammunition and the atmosphere. Had the GOP not begun their guilt-by-association character attacks, I doubt that Mr. Keating would have had any mention until the final week of October. However, with the economy becoming Mr. Obamas winning issue, it seems that the McCain campaign is on a "4th and long" situation, and Obama's past associations have become in many ways, the final line of attack to reverse his poll numbers. The objective would seem to be to create as many news articles as possible with the words "Obama" "terrorist" and "radical" in them. This development is of no suprise to anyone, especially the Obama campaign. They have dealt with this issue in the primaries and always knew that eventually the GOP would bring guns to bear on it. In my perspective, it would seem like both campaigns are bringing their final guns to bear this week.

So, the overall question is, who is going to win this character battle? This is a situation where McCain really hurt himself by overplaying his hand in September. Had McCain fought on the high ground in the last month and led a more streamlined campaign, I suspect this attack would carry far more traction among independents. The stern rebuke from the media for his ad campaign against Obama over the last month, however, has severely damaged his credibility when he really needs to bring it to bear. With the economy dominating the headlines and everyones attention, it would seem this line of attack, already debunked by the media, could even potentially backfire against McCain. Obama does not share this problem, as the Keating 5 scandal is well documented across the media spectrum and holds a special relevance to the crisis today. As a result, in a man vs. man character debate alone, I would expect Obama to gain the upper ground this week. The town hall debate on Tuesday and the Alaska ethics probe report on Friday only intensify the stakes this week, and it is probably no coincidence that both campaigns have brought full guns to bear for this likely turbulent week.

My verdict? The race could potentially break for Obama this week, but in this campaign, anything is possible. This move is likely McCains final gambit, Ayres is the only meaningful angle left that the Republicans haven't exploited, aside of Rezko and Wright. One thing is for certain though, the Obama campaign is a far cry from the Kerry campaign of 2004 when it comes to responses.